According to the electronic enthusiast website (article/Wu Zipeng), new energy vehicles will continue to grow explosively in 2022. According to the statistics of the China Automobile Association, China's new energy vehicle production and sales will be 7.058 million and 6.887 million respectively in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 96.9% and 93.4%, respectively. The global sales volume will account for more than 60% and remain the first in the world for 8 consecutive years. In 2023, electric vehicles, photovoltaic and lithium batteries will become the "new three" for China's export. There is a same driving element behind them, that is, batteries.
In the process of the rapid development of electric vehicles and photovoltaic industries, the progress of battery technology has not lagged behind. Take the power battery for electric vehicles as an example. At present, the energy density of the single power battery in China's mass production reaches 300 watt hours/kg, which is at the international leading level. In order to enhance the competitiveness of the industry, domestic manufacturers will certainly grasp the cutting-edge trend of the industry and continue to invest in the field of innovation.
Tesla 4680 battery is a strong competitor
In terms of vehicle-mounted power battery, lithium battery is still the mainstream technology at present, so the progress of Tesla 4680 battery is particularly noteworthy, and it is also the main competitor that domestic manufacturers need to face, which is related to the competitiveness of domestic electric vehicles and lithium batteries in foreign markets.
The so-called 4680 battery refers to a cylindrical battery with a diameter of 46 mm and a height of 80 mm. Under the current chemical properties and production process, the diameter of 46 mm is considered as the golden size, which achieves the best balance in terms of heat dissipation, endurance and cost.
Recently, the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) granted Tesla four patents related to 4680 batteries, namely "dry electrode film and microparticle non-fibrous adhesive", "new electrode adhesive", "metal elements and carbon mixture used for energy storage equipment", and "a more convenient method for preparing 3-r-1,4,2-dioxazole-5-one compound".
Industry insiders believe that Tesla's four technologies will accelerate the pace of the company's 4680 mass production. In particular, the company obtained two new patents on February 2 local time. Among them, "metal elements and carbon mixtures used for energy storage equipment" can be used to make dry electrode films; "A more convenient method for preparing 3-r-1,4,2-dioxazole-5-one compounds" can significantly prolong the life of lithium-ion batteries in the long cycle process.
These technologies show that Tesla is very close to overcoming the technical barriers of dry electrode. Compared with wet method, dry electrode is more difficult to realize, but it can significantly reduce the cost of 4680 battery. Therefore, Tesla is not far from mass production of 4680 batteries with advanced performance and high cost performance.
According to previous reports, in order to achieve both high energy density and high efficiency, the Tesla 4680 battery will also add all-pole ears, which will greatly increase the current path of the battery pack. According to Insidevs' research data, it is estimated that the charging time of the 400V Tesla 4680 battery is only 15 minutes, which is better than that of the 800V system based on the square battery. The latter takes between 18 and 22 minutes. In combination with the dry electrode preparation, it is expected that there will be ultra-nickel and silicon doping technology, which will significantly improve the energy density and efficiency of the 4680 battery at low cost.
In addition, in the field of electric vehicles, the Tesla 4680 battery will be perfectly compatible with CTC (Cell to Chassis) technology, greatly reducing the number of middleware used to manufacture battery packs, and improving the energy density at the battery pack level. Overall, the further breakthrough of Tesla 4680 battery will make other power battery manufacturers feel more pressure. The next explosive news in the industry is expected to be that the yield of Tesla 4680 battery production line will exceed 90%.
In China, at present, manufacturers such as Ningde Times, Bike Battery and Yiwei Lithium Energy have plans to develop 4680 batteries, and are expected to start commercializing in the second half of 2023. Among them, Ningde Times is expected to introduce its 4680 battery to Tesla China and BMW in 2024. Moreover, not only in the field of electric vehicles, but also in the energy storage market, Musk's ambition in the 4680 battery is of course a win-win situation for electric vehicles and energy storage, which undoubtedly squeezed the export share of domestic related products.
Of course, in addition to closely following Tesla in the layout of 4680 batteries, domestic manufacturers are also developing their own technologies to counter 4680 batteries, such as BYD's hexagonal prism battery and Ningde era's CTP3.0 battery pack technology. With electric vehicles and lithium batteries becoming new outlets for foreign trade, it is expected that more new domestic technologies will emerge to prevent Tesla's 4680 battery from dominating.
The industrialization process of perovskite battery was accelerated
In the photovoltaic market, domestic manufacturers have great scale advantages. According to the statistical data of CPIA, the global output of PV modules will reach 220.8GW in 2021, of which China's output will account for 82.43%. However, the countries and regions represented by the United States certainly do not want domestic PV to remain dominant and will continue to launch challenges in all aspects.
In order to consolidate the leading position of domestic PV, at present, domestic manufacturers are actively arranging perovskite solar cells. Several listed companies have announced relevant investment plans, including Ningde Times, Tongwei Shares, Longji Green Energy, Trina Solar, Jingshan Light Machinery, Jiejia Weichuang and other companies. Industry agencies predict that perovskite solar cells have a good future development prospect, and are expected to set off a new round of technological innovation in the photovoltaic field, and are expected to achieve GW (billion watts) of capacity by 2024.
The perovskite-type solar cell uses perovskite-type organic metal halide semiconductors as light absorbing materials. Its photoelectric conversion efficiency is far higher than that of crystalline silicon cells. The theoretical photoelectric conversion efficiency is as high as 33%, and can break through 45% under the lamination technology. It belongs to the next generation of solar cells.
In terms of technical breakthroughs, the steady-state output efficiency of the small area perovskite/crystalline silicon double-end laminated battery independently developed by Beijing Yaoneng Technology has reached 32.44% after the third-party test and certification of the Chinese Academy of Metrology. The company has repeatedly refreshed the photoelectric conversion record of the domestic perovskite battery.
In terms of production capacity, at present, there are three perovskite battery production lines in China with a capacity of more than 100 megawatts, respectively from GCL Optoelectronics, Fiber-Optics and Polar Optoelectronics, with a total capacity of 350 MW. According to the prediction of CICC, the planned perovskite battery capacity in China will reach 1000-1200MW in 2023, with a very obvious growth.
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In terms of industrial investment, some companies have obtained hundreds of millions of yuan of pre-A round financing, and the investment plans of many companies have reached tens of millions. In addition, the upstream of perovskite battery industry has also received attention, such as raw materials such as TCO conductive glass, ITO target, butyl rubber and POE particle film, as well as relevant equipment companies.
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Data source: Polaris solar photovoltaic network
Electronic enthusiast network drawing
Of course, in the field of perovskite batteries, not only domestic manufacturers are actively investing, but also relevant companies and institutions in the United States, Japan and other countries are also carrying out layout. Previously, the National Institute of Materials Science of Japan has developed a durable perovskite-type solar cell with an area of only 1 square centimeter, which can continuously generate electricity for more than 1000 hours under the sun with a photoelectric conversion efficiency of more than 20%; American researchers also used the "inverted" structure to enable the new battery to achieve a stable photoelectric conversion efficiency of 24%, and after operating at 55 ℃ for 2400 hours, the battery still maintains 87% of the original efficiency. However, compared with lithium batteries, domestic manufacturers are significantly more advanced in the industrialization of perovskite batteries. Some Japanese industry analysts believe that Japan will tend to be conservative in its investment in perovskite batteries because the photovoltaic supporting industry is imperfect. In contrast, although the United States strongly advocates the development of PV, it will also have concerns in this regard.
Battery capacity began to be surplus
However, as the key components behind electric vehicles, photovoltaic and energy storage, domestic batteries have some "old problems", that is, the problem of overcapacity of mature, medium and low-end products, and lithium-ion power batteries are the most prominent. Song Qiuling, deputy director of the Department of Economic Construction of the Ministry of Finance, said publicly that the risk of structural overcapacity of new energy vehicle batteries was aggravated, the low-end overcapacity was insufficient while the high-end overcapacity was insufficient, the industry was expanding blindly, and the investment was also showing signs of overheating.
Some analysts believe that the current overcapacity is actually part of industrial upgrading. These excess power battery capacity has basically continued from the first wave of electric vehicle industry boom in 2017. The products of these companies have obviously lagged behind the leading enterprises such as Ningde Times and BYD in terms of key parameters. Most of them survive with the support and investment of local governments. Although there is capacity, the products can no longer meet the current market demand. Therefore, this wave of overcapacity is defined as structural overcapacity.
However, some analysts said that the phenomenon of structural overcapacity will not disappear in the short term. The reason is that at present, driven by the upsurge of electric vehicles, photovoltaic and energy storage industries, the industrial investment is overheated, and there has been a capital overflow. As a result, some technologically backward companies can attract a certain amount of industrial investment by virtue of their big vision and new concepts. This situation needs to be gradually eliminated after the industry returns to calm. Before that, the capacity alarm represented by power battery will be continuously sounded.
Write at the end
In recent years, China has gradually achieved a global leading position in electric vehicles, photovoltaic, power batteries, etc., but the leading range of each industry is different. In terms of power batteries, Tesla 4680 battery will be an X factor, affecting the export of domestic new energy vehicles and power batteries.
However, in the photovoltaic field, the company represented by Longji has been leading the traditional solar cells for many years and has accumulated obvious advantages in the industrial chain. Therefore, in terms of the next generation of solar cells - perovskite cells, compared with manufacturers in the United States, Japan and other countries, domestic manufacturers have no concerns about industrial support, and are expected to continue to lead the innovation direction of the global photovoltaic industry.
Of course, we should also learn from the past few years in artificial intelligence, chip and other industries, and try to prevent the problem of low-end overcapacity and blind overheating of industrial investment. This is an invisible internal consumption of the industry, which wastes valuable resources, but its effect on the development of the industry is basically negative. At present, in terms of power battery, such alarm has been sounded.