Recently, there are two news that you pay more attention to.
One is that the United States recently worked out a "mysterious agreement" with Japan and the Netherlands, agreeing to expand the export control measures of chips to China.
one
Another is the latest news on January 31.
According to Bloomberg News, people familiar with the matter said that the US government is considering cutting off all links between US suppliers and Huawei in China, and prohibiting US suppliers including Intel and Qualcomm from providing any products to Huawei.
two
These two things are the further crazy suppression of our chip industry by the United States.
In fact, in the past six months, the United States has been increasing its efforts to encircle and suppress our chip industry.
Therefore, it is not surprising that the United States has tightened further this time. We should also be prepared.
Let's first look at how the United States has cracked down on our chip industry in the past six months.
On October 8, 2022, the United States announced a series of new export control regulations, which is extremely crazy to suppress our semiconductor industry.
three
I also wrote an article last year to analyze the new export control regulations of the United States, which mainly includes four parts.
1. Restricting China's access to high computing power and artificial intelligence chips under advanced manufacturing processes, including prohibiting American companies such as NVIDIA and AMD from selling such chips to China.
2. American equipment manufacturers such as Applied Materials, Fanlin and Kelei are restricted from selling semiconductor equipment to any Chinese company.
3. 31 Chinese companies, research institutions and other groups were included in the so-called "unverified list" (UVL list).
4. In terms of personnel, Americans are explicitly prohibited from providing any assistance to the development of Chinese semiconductors, including but not limited to restricting Chinese companies to set up research and development institutions in the United States.
These export controls are unprecedented in strength and scope.
It also has a great impact on us. In addition, Changjiang Storage, the leader of our storage chip field, finally began to lay off employees in January of this year because of the sanctions imposed last October.
It's a pity. With its rapid development, Changjiang Storage has reached the world-class level by virtue of its self-developed Xtacking architecture. It can fully compete with foreign large manufacturers in the field of memory chips.
The United States upgraded the pressure level last October, and a large part of it was targeted at Yangtze River Storage.
I still hope Changjiang Storage can support it.
Last October, the upgrade of the United States put pressure on our semiconductor industry. It has basically shown that the United States wants to kill our semiconductor industry. This is a comprehensive encirclement and suppression that does not give us any way out of the semiconductor industry.
In contrast, the two recent crackdowns in the United States have only made some targeted upgrades on the basis of the one in October last year, which is a more accurate crackdown.
For example, the United States, Japan and the Netherlands were reported on January 27 to agree to expand the export control measures of chips to China.
Bloomberg, which first reported this matter, mentioned the expansion of export control this time, mainly to expand the ban on the sale of chip production equipment from the most advanced EUV lithography machine to the most used DUV lithography machine.
However, it should be noted that until now, the United States, Japan and the Netherlands have not announced the specific contents of the agreement, which is very mysterious.
But it is certain that the agreement will at least expand the export control of our chip industry in some aspects.
For our chip industry, the Netherlands mainly focuses on the lithography machines produced by ASML.
Since the second half of last year, the United States has been trying to ask the Netherlands to ban the export of DUV lithography machines to us.
Before that, although ASML in the Netherlands prohibited the export of the most advanced EUV lithography machine to us according to the requirements of the United States, it still exported DUV lithography machine to us.
So last year we imported a large number of DUV lithography machines. In the first quarter of last year alone, ASML exported 21 DUV lithography machines to us, accounting for 34% of its market share.
Therefore, the United States has always asked the Netherlands to ban the export of DUV lithography machines to us.
But before that, the Netherlands had just said that it would not yield to the United States.
As a result, the mysterious agreement made by the United States, Japan and the Netherlands came out within a few days.
Therefore, there is still something fishy about this matter.
But on the whole, we should not expect the Netherlands to be so tough. These European countries often talk about it, and very few of them can completely ignore the words of the United States.
We should also be prepared for the possibility that the Netherlands will ban the export of DUV.
Although the impact of this event is relatively large, the short-term impact is relatively low.
Because last year we estimated that we also had some preparations for the worst, and a large number of DUV lithography machines were imported.
At present, it is in the cold winter of the global chip industry. The global chip demand has dropped sharply, and even Samsung's profit has also dropped significantly. So we imported so many DUV lithography machines last year, which should meet the demand for expansion of production in a year or two.
Therefore, the Dutch ban for a year or two may not have a great impact on us, but if the ban lasts longer, it will have a great impact.
Because the DUV lithography machine is the most commonly used lithography machine for the production of 14nm - 28nm chips, and it is also the largest demand for our current use.
If the ban lasts for more than one or two years, our future chip expansion will be seriously hindered.
At this time, we can only count on our own lithography function to come out quickly.
However, at present, even if the photolithograph produced in China comes out, it is 28 nm, which is a huge breakthrough.
However, if we want to further break through to 14nm, we still need to continue to accumulate and develop for a long time.
Say Huawei again.
After the comprehensive crackdown on Huawei by the United States, the main target is Huawei's self-developed chips, with the aim of cutting off Huawei's self-developed chips.
However, the American style of acting and standing makes the United States covet our market very much, especially the American semiconductor giants, such as Intel and Qualcomm, which are very dependent on our market.
Therefore, after banning Huawei, the United States has quietly opened a back door to American enterprises. As long as the United States issues export licenses, these semiconductor enterprises in the United States can export chips to Huawei.
However, this basically only allows Intel and AMD in the United States to sell notebook chips to Huawei, and Qualcomm in the United States to export mobile phone chips to Huawei.
Therefore, there are fewer and fewer Huawei mobile phones using Kirin chips on the market, and more Huawei mobile phones are also starting to use Qualcomm's CPU.
This time, the United States stopped issuing export licenses to Huawei, which means that even Intel and Qualcomm cannot export finished chips to Huawei.
If the United States does not resume the issuance of export licenses, it means that after Huawei's current chip inventory is exhausted, Huawei's notebooks and mobile phones will also face the dilemma of no core available in the future.
However, it should be noted that the United States has not clearly stated how long to suspend the issuance of export licenses.
Therefore, I think this is just another bandit like behavior of the United States before Antony Blinken's visit to China.
We cannot look at many things in isolation.
Since the end of last year, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Finance Yellen have not stopped saying that they will visit China in the first half of this year.
In combination with the recent triggering of the debt ceiling by US Treasuries, Yellen is constantly threatening the members of the US Congress, saying that he wants the risk of debt crisis.
So how to alleviate the debt crisis in the United States? The United States just wants to repeat the same way as in 2008. It comes to deceive us to increase our efforts to buy US debt, and not to reduce our holdings of US debt as much as last year.
However, given the current bad attitude of the United States, which does not give us a way out, we are constantly being chased and blocked everywhere. We are unlikely to repeat the scene of farmers and snakes in 2008, as the United States thought.
Then the United States will stop issuing Huawei's export license at this time, which can be regarded as an attempt by the United States to add some chips to the next negotiation table.
The United States is very good at making cards out of thin air.
For example, in the Trump period, we were often subject to tariff increases. After tariff increases, we used this as a bargaining chip. It became necessary for us to make concessions before he reduced tariffs.
This is making cards out of thin air, which is the consistent way of American negotiations.
This is true in Trump's time, and it is also true in Biden now, but there are some differences in the specific details and styles between the two sides, which is basically to change the soup without changing the dressing.
In general, if we follow the trend of the United States' overall encirclement and suppression of our semiconductor industry, the worst situation is that we will go back to using 28-nanometer chips in two or three years.
As for many people saying that our semiconductor industry will collapse because of this, I think it is still a little too pessimistic.
We have a huge demand for semiconductors. As long as there is a demand, there will be a market, and there will be an incentive for enterprises to research and develop. As long as there is continuous research and development, it is only a matter of time to make technological breakthroughs.
What's more, our country will fully support the semiconductor industry, and the whole country will lead our semiconductor industry to carry out the long march of a new era.
In the face of the overall encirclement and suppression of our semiconductor industry by the United States, we need to have the courage to start the Long March 90 years ago.
In history, we have faced countless encirclements and suppression.
However, we can always break through successfully under the fierce attack of the enemy.
90 years ago.
Now, too.
One generation has a long march.
In the face of the all-around encirclement and suppression launched by the United States against us, we have no way out, we can only move forward and break through.
In addition to breaking through the encirclement and suppression of the semiconductor industry, breaking through the first island chain blocked by the United States is the top priority.
In the period before 2025, there will be no shortage of waves.
Whoever cannot destroy me will make me stronger.